{
 "boundary": "One order of a single $100 item, merchant's view, sales tax excluded from revenue (collected and remitted). Marginal cash contribution: expected value over the return rate, before fixed costs and overheads. Acquisition is matched: left out of every fee-comparison route and applied as the same illustrative input to both paid-acquisition scenarios. Conversion, basket size, repeat purchase and incremental demand are not in the per-order figure; displacement is shown separately.",
 "perspective": "Marginal cash contribution per order under the declared boundary: variable costs of one order only. Not attributed channel contribution and not fully loaded profit: fixed integration, feed, catalogue and governance costs, overheads, and the cost of building organic traffic (SEO, email, brand) are outside the per-order figure.",
 "order": {
  "net_sales": 100,
  "tax": 8,
  "shipping_charged": 0,
  "cogs": 50,
  "fulfilment": 10,
  "return_rate": 0.193,
  "recovery": 0.7,
  "return_cost": 21
 },
 "inputs": [
  {
   "key": "net_sales",
   "label": "Item price after discounts",
   "value": 100,
   "unit": "USD",
   "basis": "illustrative",
   "note": "Worksheet anchor (ECO-I001); not an observed basket.",
   "claim_ids": [],
   "range": [
    25,
    250
   ]
  },
  {
   "key": "tax",
   "label": "Sales tax charged to the shopper",
   "value": 8,
   "unit": "USD",
   "basis": "illustrative",
   "note": "Passed through; matters only because card fees are charged on the amount paid.",
   "claim_ids": [],
   "range": [
    0,
    10
   ]
  },
  {
   "key": "cogs",
   "label": "Cost of goods",
   "value": 50,
   "unit": "USD",
   "basis": "illustrative",
   "note": "50% of price; varies by category.",
   "claim_ids": [],
   "range": [
    20,
    80
   ]
  },
  {
   "key": "fulfilment",
   "label": "Fulfilment and merchant-funded shipping",
   "value": 10,
   "unit": "USD",
   "basis": "illustrative",
   "note": "Merchant's own cost (ECO-I022 unknown); for the marketplace route the same figure stands in for fulfilment fees so routes differ only by fees.",
   "claim_ids": [],
   "range": [
    4,
    20
   ]
  },
  {
   "key": "return_rate",
   "label": "Share of orders returned",
   "value": 0.193,
   "unit": "share",
   "basis": "reported",
   "note": "Online returns, 2025 (NRF with Happy Returns, a returns-services vendor; retailer estimates). No return rate for AI-referred or agent-placed orders was found.",
   "claim_ids": [
    "ECO-C050",
    "ECO-C215",
    "ECO-C225"
   ],
   "range": [
    0.1,
    0.3
   ]
  },
  {
   "key": "recovery",
   "label": "Share of a returned item's cost recovered",
   "value": 0.7,
   "unit": "share",
   "basis": "illustrative",
   "note": "Resale or restock value net of markdown.",
   "claim_ids": [],
   "range": [
    0.3,
    1
   ]
  },
  {
   "key": "return_cost",
   "label": "Cost to process one return",
   "value": 21,
   "unit": "USD",
   "basis": "reported",
   "note": "21% of order value, the low published estimate (Pitney Bowes 2022, a parcel vendor); published estimates run to 59% (ASU 2022).",
   "claim_ids": [
    "ECO-C053",
    "ECO-C216"
   ],
   "range": [
    21,
    59
   ]
  },
  {
   "key": "cpc_derived",
   "label": "Paid-search cost per order implied by average CPC ÷ conversion",
   "value": 103.24,
   "unit": "USD",
   "basis": "reported",
   "note": "$4.14 CPC ÷ 4.01% conversion (LocaliQ/WordStream averages via a relay). A formula, not an observed cost; a conversion may not be an order. Used only as the high end of the acquisition range.",
   "claim_ids": [
    "ECO-C054"
   ],
   "range": null
  },
  {
   "key": "shipping_charged",
   "label": "Shipping charged to the shopper",
   "value": 0,
   "unit": "USD",
   "basis": "illustrative",
   "note": "Free shipping to the shopper; the merchant funds delivery in the fulfilment line.",
   "claim_ids": [],
   "range": [
    0,
    15
   ]
  }
 ],
 "routes": [
  {
   "id": "R-OWN-SITE",
   "group": "fees",
   "label": "Own-site checkout, any traffic source (no channel party to the sale)",
   "basis": "public-standard card rate; no channel takes part in the sale",
   "payment_fee": {
    "rate": 0.029,
    "fixed": 0.3,
    "base": "charged",
    "basis": "public-standard",
    "claim_ids": [
     "ECO-C013"
    ]
   },
   "platform_fee": null,
   "acquisition": 0,
   "acquisition_note": "Not included (matched). This is not a claim that organic search, email, a direct visit or an organic AI referral costs nothing: building that traffic has costs outside the per-order boundary.",
   "pay_fee_refunded": 0,
   "fee_types": {
    "programme": {
     "status": "none",
     "text": "No channel programme",
     "claim_ids": []
    },
    "channel_commission": {
     "status": "none",
     "text": "No channel party to the sale",
     "claim_ids": []
    },
    "payment_processing": {
     "status": "public-standard",
     "text": "2.9% + 30¢ (Stripe US standard)",
     "claim_ids": [
      "ECO-C013"
     ]
    },
    "paid_placement_affiliate": {
     "status": "not modelled",
     "text": "Paid search, affiliates or ads are acquisition; see the paid scenarios",
     "claim_ids": []
    },
    "integration": {
     "status": "not established",
     "text": "Platform and site costs are fixed costs, outside the order",
     "claim_ids": []
    },
    "historical": {
     "status": "none",
     "text": "—",
     "claim_ids": []
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "R-MS-COPILOT",
   "label": "Checkout inside Microsoft Copilot, merchant of record",
   "basis": "Microsoft's own statement of no commission 'today'; Shopify Payments Basic rate",
   "payment_fee": {
    "rate": 0.029,
    "fixed": 0.3,
    "base": "charged",
    "basis": "public-standard",
    "claim_ids": [
     "ECO-C015"
    ]
   },
   "platform_fee": {
    "rate": 0,
    "fixed": 0,
    "base": "sales",
    "basis": "operator statement ('no commission today'; vendor-claimed)",
    "claim_ids": [
     "ECO-C007",
     "ECO-C213"
    ]
   },
   "acquisition": 0,
   "pay_fee_refunded": 0,
   "acquisition_note": "Not included, as in every fee-comparison route (matched). Any route's orders can carry acquisition or affiliate cost; enter it in the worksheet.",
   "group": "fees",
   "fee_types": {
    "programme": {
     "status": "not established",
     "text": "No programme fee found",
     "claim_ids": []
    },
    "channel_commission": {
     "status": "stated zero",
     "text": "Microsoft: no commission or affiliate fee on Copilot Checkout 'today' (vendor-claimed)",
     "claim_ids": [
      "ECO-C007"
     ]
    },
    "payment_processing": {
     "status": "public-standard",
     "text": "Merchant's own processor; Shopify Payments Basic 2.9% + 30¢ modelled",
     "claim_ids": [
      "ECO-C015"
     ]
    },
    "paid_placement_affiliate": {
     "status": "stated zero",
     "text": "Affiliate fee: none 'today' (same statement); paid ad formats in Copilot not modelled",
     "claim_ids": [
      "ECO-C007",
      "DIS-C055"
     ]
    },
    "integration": {
     "status": "not established",
     "text": "No public figure",
     "claim_ids": [
      "ECO-C064"
     ]
    },
    "historical": {
     "status": "none",
     "text": "—",
     "claim_ids": []
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "R-GOO-SHOPIFY",
   "group": "fees",
   "label": "Checkout in Google AI Mode or Gemini through Shopify's channel (eligible US stores selling to US customers)",
   "basis": "Shopify's own statement (help page retrieved by the external reviewer, 10 Oct 2026): only standard payment processing; vendor-claimed, not re-opened by this study",
   "payment_fee": {
    "rate": 0.029,
    "fixed": 0.3,
    "base": "charged",
    "basis": "public-standard",
    "claim_ids": [
     "ECO-C015"
    ]
   },
   "platform_fee": null,
   "acquisition": 0,
   "pay_fee_refunded": 0,
   "acquisition_note": "Not included, as in every fee-comparison route (matched). Any route's orders can carry acquisition or affiliate cost; enter it in the worksheet.",
   "scenario": "No channel fee is Shopify's statement for eligible US stores; Shopify's terms (6 Oct 2026) apply the channel fees shown in Shopify Admin and allow waivers, so check the account.",
   "fee_types": {
    "programme": {
     "status": "not established",
     "text": "Eligible US-based stores selling to US customers; rollout, product and account requirements apply; no programme fee found",
     "claim_ids": [
      "EXT-C202"
     ]
    },
    "channel_commission": {
     "status": "stated zero",
     "text": "Shopify: 'You pay only your standard payment processing fees' (vendor-claimed; fees in Shopify Admin can change)",
     "claim_ids": [
      "EXT-C202",
      "EXT-C205",
      "EXT-C206"
     ]
    },
    "payment_processing": {
     "status": "public-standard",
     "text": "Shopify Payments Basic 2.9% + 30¢ modelled",
     "claim_ids": [
      "ECO-C015"
     ]
    },
    "paid_placement_affiliate": {
     "status": "not modelled",
     "text": "Ads in AI Overviews and AI Mode announced; cost per order not public",
     "claim_ids": [
      "DIS-C055"
     ]
    },
    "integration": {
     "status": "not established",
     "text": "No public figure",
     "claim_ids": [
      "ECO-C064"
     ]
    },
    "historical": {
     "status": "none",
     "text": "—",
     "claim_ids": []
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "R-GOO-AIMODE",
   "label": "Agentic checkout in Google AI Mode or Gemini, direct integration outside Shopify (UCP)",
   "basis": "commission not established: Google's US Checkout Addendum (updated 24 Jun 2026, retrieved by the external reviewer) makes the merchant the merchant of record but states neither a zero rate nor a commission schedule",
   "payment_fee": {
    "rate": 0.029,
    "fixed": 0.3,
    "base": "charged",
    "basis": "public-standard",
    "claim_ids": [
     "ECO-C015"
    ]
   },
   "platform_fee": {
    "rate": null,
    "fixed": null,
    "base": "sales",
    "basis": "unknown (no commission schedule found in Google's US checkout terms)",
    "claim_ids": [
     "EXT-C203",
     "EXT-C204",
     "ECO-C010"
    ]
   },
   "acquisition": 0,
   "pay_fee_refunded": 0,
   "acquisition_note": "Not included, as in every fee-comparison route (matched). Any route's orders can carry acquisition or affiliate cost; enter it in the worksheet.",
   "group": "fees",
   "fee_types": {
    "programme": {
     "status": "not established",
     "text": "Opt-in by a Merchant Center attribute; no programme fee found",
     "claim_ids": [
      "ECO-C210"
     ]
    },
    "channel_commission": {
     "status": "not established",
     "text": "Not stated in developer pages; Google's US Checkout Addendum (24 Jun 2026) has no commission schedule and states no zero rate",
     "claim_ids": [
      "EXT-C203",
      "EXT-C204",
      "ECO-C010"
     ]
    },
    "payment_processing": {
     "status": "public-standard",
     "text": "Merchant's own processor; 2.9% + 30¢ modelled",
     "claim_ids": [
      "ECO-C015"
     ]
    },
    "paid_placement_affiliate": {
     "status": "not modelled",
     "text": "Ads in AI Overviews and AI Mode announced; cost per order not public",
     "claim_ids": [
      "DIS-C055"
     ]
    },
    "integration": {
     "status": "not established",
     "text": "No public figure",
     "claim_ids": [
      "ECO-C064"
     ]
    },
    "historical": {
     "status": "none",
     "text": "—",
     "claim_ids": []
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "R-OAI-SHOPIFY",
   "group": "fees",
   "label": "ChatGPT discovery, purchase in the Shopify merchant's own checkout (in-app browser or merchant tab)",
   "basis": "Shopify's own statement (24 Mar 2026 release, retrieved by the external reviewer): no transaction fees beyond standard processing; vendor-claimed, not re-opened by this study",
   "payment_fee": {
    "rate": 0.029,
    "fixed": 0.3,
    "base": "charged",
    "basis": "public-standard",
    "claim_ids": [
     "ECO-C015"
    ]
   },
   "platform_fee": null,
   "acquisition": 0,
   "pay_fee_refunded": 0,
   "acquisition_note": "Not included, as in every fee-comparison route (matched). ChatGPT ads (Feb 2026) would be acquisition.",
   "scenario": "No transaction fee beyond processing is Shopify's 24 Mar 2026 statement for this route only, not for historical Instant Checkout; Shopify Admin fees can change (terms of 6 Oct 2026).",
   "fee_types": {
    "programme": {
     "status": "not established",
     "text": "No programme fee found",
     "claim_ids": []
    },
    "channel_commission": {
     "status": "stated zero",
     "text": "Shopify: 'no transaction fees beyond standard processing rates' (vendor-claimed; fees in Shopify Admin can change)",
     "claim_ids": [
      "EXT-C201",
      "ECO-C005",
      "EXT-C205",
      "EXT-C206"
     ]
    },
    "payment_processing": {
     "status": "public-standard",
     "text": "Shopify Payments Basic 2.9% + 30¢ modelled",
     "claim_ids": [
      "ECO-C015"
     ]
    },
    "paid_placement_affiliate": {
     "status": "not modelled",
     "text": "ChatGPT ads (Feb 2026) not modelled",
     "claim_ids": [
      "DIS-C055"
     ]
    },
    "integration": {
     "status": "not established",
     "text": "No public figure",
     "claim_ids": [
      "ECO-C064"
     ]
    },
    "historical": {
     "status": "none",
     "text": "—",
     "claim_ids": []
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "R-OAI-INSTANTCHECKOUT",
   "label": "ChatGPT Instant Checkout, Sept 2025 – Mar 2026 (historical; hypothetical fee base)",
   "basis": "OpenAI's launch post says merchants pay 'a small fee on completed purchases' (vendor-claimed, 29 Sep 2025); the 4% rate is reported by trade press and neither rate nor base is verified in a primary source. Hypothetical: 4% applied to the $100 item subtotal",
   "payment_fee": {
    "rate": 0.029,
    "fixed": 0.3,
    "base": "charged",
    "basis": "public-standard",
    "claim_ids": [
     "ECO-C013"
    ]
   },
   "platform_fee": {
    "rate": 0.04,
    "fixed": 0,
    "base": "sales",
    "basis": "reported (historical); rate and base unverified in primary sources: hypothetical 4% on the item subtotal",
    "claim_ids": [
     "ECO-C001",
     "ECO-C002",
     "ECO-C065",
     "EXT-C214"
    ]
   },
   "acquisition": 0,
   "pay_fee_refunded": 0,
   "acquisition_note": "Not included, as in every fee-comparison route (matched). Any route's orders can carry acquisition or affiliate cost; enter it in the worksheet.",
   "group": "fees",
   "scenario": "Hypothetical 4% applied to the $100 item subtotal; the actual historical fee base was not established. On the $108 charged to the shopper it would be $0.32 lower.",
   "fee_types": {
    "programme": {
     "status": "not established",
     "text": "No programme fee found",
     "claim_ids": []
    },
    "channel_commission": {
     "status": "historical",
     "text": "OpenAI: 'a small fee on completed purchases'; 4% reported by trade press (Jan–Mar 2026); rate and base unverified",
     "claim_ids": [
      "EXT-C214",
      "ECO-C001",
      "ECO-C002"
     ]
    },
    "payment_processing": {
     "status": "public-standard",
     "text": "On top of the fee (reported); 2.9% + 30¢ modelled",
     "claim_ids": [
      "ECO-C001",
      "ECO-C013"
     ]
    },
    "paid_placement_affiliate": {
     "status": "not modelled",
     "text": "ChatGPT ads (Feb 2026) not modelled",
     "claim_ids": [
      "DIS-C055"
     ]
    },
    "integration": {
     "status": "not established",
     "text": "No public figure",
     "claim_ids": [
      "ECO-C064"
     ]
    },
    "historical": {
     "status": "historical",
     "text": "Flow scaled back from March 2026; Shopify states no transaction fee beyond processing for the merchant-checkout route that replaced it",
     "claim_ids": [
      "ECO-C004",
      "ECO-C065",
      "EXT-C201"
     ]
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "R-AMZ-MARKETPLACE",
   "label": "Amazon marketplace listing",
   "basis": "reported 15% referral on the total price including shipping (current schedule); payment processing inside the referral fee per Amazon's Nov 2022 fee update; refund returns the fee less an admin fee",
   "payment_fee": null,
   "payment_note": "No separate card fee: Amazon's 17 Nov 2022 fee update lists payment processing among the services its referral fee covers (attributed, a 2022 statement paired with the current schedule, not a 2026 restatement). Amazon Pay, Buy with Prime and Buy for Me fees are other routes and are not transferred here.",
   "platform_fee": {
    "rate": 0.15,
    "fixed": 0,
    "base": "sales+shipping",
    "basis": "reported",
    "claim_ids": [
     "ECO-C018",
     "EXT-C212",
     "ECO-C201"
    ]
   },
   "refund_note": "Refund administration fee: the lower of $5 or 20% of the referral fee (reported); on this one-SKU order 20% of $15 = $3, so the cap does not bind.",
   "acquisition": 0,
   "acquisition_note": "Not included (matched); sponsored-product spend would be acquisition.",
   "pay_fee_refunded": 0,
   "group": "fees",
   "fee_types": {
    "programme": {
     "status": "not modelled",
     "text": "Selling-plan subscription not modelled",
     "claim_ids": []
    },
    "channel_commission": {
     "status": "reported",
     "text": "Referral fee about 15% in most categories on the total price incl. shipping and gift wrap; most refunded on returns",
     "claim_ids": [
      "ECO-C018",
      "EXT-C212",
      "ECO-C201"
     ]
    },
    "payment_processing": {
     "status": "stated inside referral fee",
     "text": "Amazon (17 Nov 2022): the referral fee covers 'payment processing, fraud prevention, and much more'; paired with the current schedule, not a 2026 restatement",
     "claim_ids": [
      "EXT-C211",
      "EXT-C212",
      "EXT-C213"
     ]
    },
    "paid_placement_affiliate": {
     "status": "not modelled",
     "text": "Sponsored products, Rufus sponsored prompts",
     "claim_ids": [
      "DIS-C055"
     ]
    },
    "integration": {
     "status": "not established",
     "text": "Fulfilment fees stood in by the shared fulfilment line",
     "claim_ids": []
    },
    "historical": {
     "status": "none",
     "text": "—",
     "claim_ids": []
    }
   },
   "scenario": "No separate card fee: Amazon's Nov 2022 fee update says the referral fee covers payment processing (a 2022 statement, paired with the current schedule). A separate 2.9% + 30¢ would lower the result by $3.43.",
   "platform_fee_refund_rule": {
    "admin_rate": 0.2,
    "admin_cap": 5
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "R-TT-SHOP",
   "label": "TikTok Shop US (in-app checkout)",
   "basis": "6% referral for most categories (TikTok's category schedule, retrieved by the external reviewer) on customer payment + platform discount − tax; no separate processing fee in the base scenario (inference); 8% only as a reported, unsubstantiated sensitivity",
   "payment_fee": null,
   "platform_fee": {
    "rate": 0.06,
    "fixed": 0,
    "base": "sales+shipping",
    "basis": "reported by the external reviewer from TikTok's category schedule (most categories 6%; jewelry and pre-owned exceptions); 8% reported by seller guides, not substantiated",
    "claim_ids": [
     "EXT-C208",
     "EXT-C209",
     "ECO-C026"
    ]
   },
   "acquisition": 0,
   "acquisition_note": "Not included (matched); creator commission (10–20% reported, seller-set) would be affiliate cost.",
   "pay_fee_refunded": 0,
   "group": "fees",
   "fee_types": {
    "programme": {
     "status": "not established",
     "text": "No programme fee found",
     "claim_ids": []
    },
    "channel_commission": {
     "status": "reported",
     "text": "6% for most listed categories, named jewelry/pre-owned exceptions; base = customer payment + platform discount − tax (buyer-paid shipping included); 8% reported, not substantiated",
     "claim_ids": [
      "EXT-C208",
      "EXT-C209",
      "ECO-C026",
      "ECO-C027"
     ]
    },
    "payment_processing": {
     "status": "inference",
     "text": "No separate processing fee in the base scenario: the referral fee 'encompasses all TikTok Shop fees' except shipping and tax; not an explicit processing sentence",
     "claim_ids": [
      "EXT-C207",
      "EXT-C210"
     ]
    },
    "paid_placement_affiliate": {
     "status": "reported",
     "text": "Creator commission 10–20%, seller-set; not included",
     "claim_ids": [
      "ECO-C028"
     ]
    },
    "integration": {
     "status": "not established",
     "text": "No public figure",
     "claim_ids": []
    },
    "historical": {
     "status": "none",
     "text": "—",
     "claim_ids": []
    }
   },
   "payment_note": "Inference: no separate card-processing fee in the base scenario, because TikTok's referral fee 'encompasses all TikTok Shop fees, with the exception of shipping and tax fees'. Not an explicit processing sentence; not the total selling cost.",
   "refund_note": "On a refund TikTok returns the referral fee less an administration charge of 20% of the fee, capped at $5 per SKU since 15 May 2025 (TikTok Shop US policy, 'Refunds and Returns', external reviewer retrieval 10 Oct 2026); exceptions for some creator-sample refunds and eligible pre-shipment cancellations are not modelled. On this one-SKU $100 order the cap does not bind ($1.20 < $5).",
   "scenario": "Base case, an inference: no separate processing fee. Fee base = customer payment (incl. buyer-paid shipping) + platform discount − tax; no platform discount here. Sensitivities: 8% (reported, not substantiated) $16.64; a separate 2.9% + 30¢ $14.90.",
   "platform_fee_refund_rule": {
    "admin_rate": 0.2,
    "admin_cap": 5
   },
   "refund_claim_ids": [
    "EXT-C216"
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "R-OWN-SEARCH",
   "label": "Own site, order bought through paid search (illustrative acquisition)",
   "basis": "illustrative acquisition; public-standard card rate",
   "payment_fee": {
    "rate": 0.029,
    "fixed": 0.3,
    "base": "charged",
    "basis": "public-standard",
    "claim_ids": [
     "ECO-C013"
    ]
   },
   "platform_fee": null,
   "acquisition": 15,
   "acquisition_note": "Illustrative $15 per order, the same input as the paid-AI scenario. The average CPC ÷ conversion formula gives $103 for a $100 item, which is why many merchants do not buy such orders at average bids.",
   "pay_fee_refunded": 0,
   "group": "acquisition",
   "fee_types": {
    "programme": {
     "status": "none",
     "text": "No channel programme",
     "claim_ids": []
    },
    "channel_commission": {
     "status": "none",
     "text": "No channel party to the sale",
     "claim_ids": []
    },
    "payment_processing": {
     "status": "public-standard",
     "text": "2.9% + 30¢ (Stripe US standard)",
     "claim_ids": [
      "ECO-C013"
     ]
    },
    "paid_placement_affiliate": {
     "status": "illustrative",
     "text": "$15 per order, illustrative (CPC ÷ conversion averages imply up to $103)",
     "claim_ids": [
      "ECO-C054"
     ]
    },
    "integration": {
     "status": "not established",
     "text": "Platform and site costs are fixed costs, outside the order",
     "claim_ids": []
    },
    "historical": {
     "status": "none",
     "text": "—",
     "claim_ids": []
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "R-OWN-AIPAID",
   "group": "acquisition",
   "label": "Own site, order bought through a paid unit inside an AI assistant (illustrative acquisition)",
   "basis": "illustrative acquisition; public-standard card rate",
   "payment_fee": {
    "rate": 0.029,
    "fixed": 0.3,
    "base": "charged",
    "basis": "public-standard",
    "claim_ids": [
     "ECO-C013"
    ]
   },
   "platform_fee": null,
   "acquisition": 15,
   "acquisition_note": "Illustrative $15 per order, the same input as paid search: no public cost per order for ads inside assistants was found, so the two paid scenarios are matched and their equal result is the input, not an effect of either channel.",
   "pay_fee_refunded": 0,
   "fee_types": {
    "programme": {
     "status": "none",
     "text": "No channel programme",
     "claim_ids": []
    },
    "channel_commission": {
     "status": "none",
     "text": "No channel party to the sale",
     "claim_ids": []
    },
    "payment_processing": {
     "status": "public-standard",
     "text": "2.9% + 30¢ (Stripe US standard)",
     "claim_ids": [
      "ECO-C013"
     ]
    },
    "paid_placement_affiliate": {
     "status": "illustrative",
     "text": "$15 per order, illustrative; paid units in assistants announced 2026, price not public",
     "claim_ids": [
      "DIS-C055"
     ]
    },
    "integration": {
     "status": "not established",
     "text": "Platform and site costs are fixed costs, outside the order",
     "claim_ids": []
    },
    "historical": {
     "status": "none",
     "text": "—",
     "claim_ids": []
    }
   }
  }
 ],
 "groups": {
  "fees": "Fee comparison: acquisition left out of every route (matched)",
  "acquisition": "Paid acquisition scenarios: the same illustrative $15 on both"
 },
 "displacement": {
  "about": "ΔC = N·[m_new − (1 − q)·m_old] − F: N new-route orders, q the share incremental to the business (unknown unless a holdout measures it), m_new and m_old per-order contribution under the same cost definitions, F the route's incremental fixed cost over the same period. Each displaced order replaces one comparable old-route order; one period only.",
  "old": "R-OWN-SITE",
  "examples": [
   "R-MS-COPILOT",
   "R-AMZ-MARKETPLACE",
   "R-TT-SHOP"
  ],
  "q": [
   1,
   0.5,
   0
  ]
 },
 "results": [
  {
   "route": "R-OWN-SITE",
   "label": "Own-site checkout, any traffic source (no channel party to the sale)",
   "basis": "public-standard card rate; no channel takes part in the sale",
   "value": 19.97,
   "unknown": [],
   "lines": [
    [
     "Net sales kept",
     80.7
    ],
    [
     "Cost of goods (net of recovered returns)",
     -43.24
    ],
    [
     "Fulfilment and merchant-funded shipping",
     -10
    ],
    [
     "Payment fee",
     -3.43
    ],
    [
     "Platform / referral fee",
     0
    ],
    [
     "Acquisition or affiliate cost",
     0
    ],
    [
     "Return processing",
     -4.05
    ]
   ]
  },
  {
   "route": "R-MS-COPILOT",
   "label": "Checkout inside Microsoft Copilot, merchant of record",
   "basis": "Microsoft's own statement of no commission 'today'; Shopify Payments Basic rate",
   "value": 19.97,
   "unknown": [],
   "lines": [
    [
     "Net sales kept",
     80.7
    ],
    [
     "Cost of goods (net of recovered returns)",
     -43.24
    ],
    [
     "Fulfilment and merchant-funded shipping",
     -10
    ],
    [
     "Payment fee",
     -3.43
    ],
    [
     "Platform / referral fee",
     0
    ],
    [
     "Acquisition or affiliate cost",
     0
    ],
    [
     "Return processing",
     -4.05
    ]
   ]
  },
  {
   "route": "R-GOO-SHOPIFY",
   "label": "Checkout in Google AI Mode or Gemini through Shopify's channel (eligible US stores selling to US customers)",
   "basis": "Shopify's own statement (help page retrieved by the external reviewer, 10 Oct 2026): only standard payment processing; vendor-claimed, not re-opened by this study",
   "value": 19.97,
   "unknown": [],
   "lines": [
    [
     "Net sales kept",
     80.7
    ],
    [
     "Cost of goods (net of recovered returns)",
     -43.24
    ],
    [
     "Fulfilment and merchant-funded shipping",
     -10
    ],
    [
     "Payment fee",
     -3.43
    ],
    [
     "Platform / referral fee",
     0
    ],
    [
     "Acquisition or affiliate cost",
     0
    ],
    [
     "Return processing",
     -4.05
    ]
   ]
  },
  {
   "route": "R-GOO-AIMODE",
   "label": "Agentic checkout in Google AI Mode or Gemini, direct integration outside Shopify (UCP)",
   "basis": "commission not established: Google's US Checkout Addendum (updated 24 Jun 2026, retrieved by the external reviewer) makes the merchant the merchant of record but states neither a zero rate nor a commission schedule",
   "value": null,
   "unknown": [
    "platform_fee"
   ],
   "lines": null
  },
  {
   "route": "R-OAI-SHOPIFY",
   "label": "ChatGPT discovery, purchase in the Shopify merchant's own checkout (in-app browser or merchant tab)",
   "basis": "Shopify's own statement (24 Mar 2026 release, retrieved by the external reviewer): no transaction fees beyond standard processing; vendor-claimed, not re-opened by this study",
   "value": 19.97,
   "unknown": [],
   "lines": [
    [
     "Net sales kept",
     80.7
    ],
    [
     "Cost of goods (net of recovered returns)",
     -43.24
    ],
    [
     "Fulfilment and merchant-funded shipping",
     -10
    ],
    [
     "Payment fee",
     -3.43
    ],
    [
     "Platform / referral fee",
     0
    ],
    [
     "Acquisition or affiliate cost",
     0
    ],
    [
     "Return processing",
     -4.05
    ]
   ]
  },
  {
   "route": "R-OAI-INSTANTCHECKOUT",
   "label": "ChatGPT Instant Checkout, Sept 2025 – Mar 2026 (historical; hypothetical fee base)",
   "basis": "OpenAI's launch post says merchants pay 'a small fee on completed purchases' (vendor-claimed, 29 Sep 2025); the 4% rate is reported by trade press and neither rate nor base is verified in a primary source. Hypothetical: 4% applied to the $100 item subtotal",
   "value": 15.97,
   "unknown": [],
   "lines": [
    [
     "Net sales kept",
     80.7
    ],
    [
     "Cost of goods (net of recovered returns)",
     -43.24
    ],
    [
     "Fulfilment and merchant-funded shipping",
     -10
    ],
    [
     "Payment fee",
     -3.43
    ],
    [
     "Platform / referral fee",
     -4
    ],
    [
     "Acquisition or affiliate cost",
     0
    ],
    [
     "Return processing",
     -4.05
    ]
   ]
  },
  {
   "route": "R-AMZ-MARKETPLACE",
   "label": "Amazon marketplace listing",
   "basis": "reported 15% referral on the total price including shipping (current schedule); payment processing inside the referral fee per Amazon's Nov 2022 fee update; refund returns the fee less an admin fee",
   "value": 10.72,
   "unknown": [],
   "lines": [
    [
     "Net sales kept",
     80.7
    ],
    [
     "Cost of goods (net of recovered returns)",
     -43.24
    ],
    [
     "Fulfilment and merchant-funded shipping",
     -10
    ],
    [
     "Payment fee",
     0
    ],
    [
     "Platform / referral fee",
     -12.68
    ],
    [
     "Acquisition or affiliate cost",
     0
    ],
    [
     "Return processing",
     -4.05
    ]
   ]
  },
  {
   "route": "R-TT-SHOP",
   "label": "TikTok Shop US (in-app checkout)",
   "basis": "6% referral for most categories (TikTok's category schedule, retrieved by the external reviewer) on customer payment + platform discount − tax; no separate processing fee in the base scenario (inference); 8% only as a reported, unsubstantiated sensitivity",
   "value": 18.33,
   "unknown": [],
   "lines": [
    [
     "Net sales kept",
     80.7
    ],
    [
     "Cost of goods (net of recovered returns)",
     -43.24
    ],
    [
     "Fulfilment and merchant-funded shipping",
     -10
    ],
    [
     "Payment fee",
     0
    ],
    [
     "Platform / referral fee",
     -5.07
    ],
    [
     "Acquisition or affiliate cost",
     0
    ],
    [
     "Return processing",
     -4.05
    ]
   ]
  },
  {
   "route": "R-OWN-SEARCH",
   "label": "Own site, order bought through paid search (illustrative acquisition)",
   "basis": "illustrative acquisition; public-standard card rate",
   "value": 4.97,
   "unknown": [],
   "lines": [
    [
     "Net sales kept",
     80.7
    ],
    [
     "Cost of goods (net of recovered returns)",
     -43.24
    ],
    [
     "Fulfilment and merchant-funded shipping",
     -10
    ],
    [
     "Payment fee",
     -3.43
    ],
    [
     "Platform / referral fee",
     0
    ],
    [
     "Acquisition or affiliate cost",
     -15
    ],
    [
     "Return processing",
     -4.05
    ]
   ]
  },
  {
   "route": "R-OWN-AIPAID",
   "label": "Own site, order bought through a paid unit inside an AI assistant (illustrative acquisition)",
   "basis": "illustrative acquisition; public-standard card rate",
   "value": 4.97,
   "unknown": [],
   "lines": [
    [
     "Net sales kept",
     80.7
    ],
    [
     "Cost of goods (net of recovered returns)",
     -43.24
    ],
    [
     "Fulfilment and merchant-funded shipping",
     -10
    ],
    [
     "Payment fee",
     -3.43
    ],
    [
     "Platform / referral fee",
     0
    ],
    [
     "Acquisition or affiliate cost",
     -15
    ],
    [
     "Return processing",
     -4.05
    ]
   ]
  }
 ],
 "break_even": [
  {
   "route": "R-OWN-SITE",
   "fixed_cost": null,
   "orders": null,
   "reason": "the baseline route itself"
  },
  {
   "route": "R-MS-COPILOT",
   "fixed_cost": null,
   "orders": null,
   "reason": "no public fixed-cost figure was found; enter your own in the worksheet"
  },
  {
   "route": "R-GOO-SHOPIFY",
   "fixed_cost": null,
   "orders": null,
   "reason": "no public fixed-cost figure was found; enter your own in the worksheet"
  },
  {
   "route": "R-GOO-AIMODE",
   "fixed_cost": null,
   "orders": null,
   "reason": "no public fixed-cost figure was found; enter your own in the worksheet"
  },
  {
   "route": "R-OAI-SHOPIFY",
   "fixed_cost": null,
   "orders": null,
   "reason": "no public fixed-cost figure was found; enter your own in the worksheet"
  },
  {
   "route": "R-OAI-INSTANTCHECKOUT",
   "fixed_cost": null,
   "orders": null,
   "reason": "no public fixed-cost figure was found; enter your own in the worksheet"
  },
  {
   "route": "R-AMZ-MARKETPLACE",
   "fixed_cost": null,
   "orders": null,
   "reason": "no public fixed-cost figure was found; enter your own in the worksheet"
  },
  {
   "route": "R-TT-SHOP",
   "fixed_cost": null,
   "orders": null,
   "reason": "no public fixed-cost figure was found; enter your own in the worksheet"
  },
  {
   "route": "R-OWN-SEARCH",
   "fixed_cost": null,
   "orders": null,
   "reason": "no public fixed-cost figure was found; enter your own in the worksheet"
  },
  {
   "route": "R-OWN-AIPAID",
   "fixed_cost": null,
   "orders": null,
   "reason": "no public fixed-cost figure was found; enter your own in the worksheet"
  }
 ],
 "baseline": "R-OWN-SITE",
 "notes": [
  "No fixed integration or catalogue cost was found in a public source (ECO-I027), so no break-even volume is computed for any route. The worksheet takes your own fixed cost and incremental share.",
  "A new route adds ΔC = N·[m_new − (1 − q)·m_old] − F, where q is the share of its orders that are new to the business. q is unknown without a holdout: read the result at q = 1, q = 0 and a mix. Break-even exists only when the bracket is positive.",
  "Conversion multipliers (0.33× to 1.42× reported, conflicting), basket size and repeat purchase are not part of order contribution. A higher conversion rate does not show additional demand or profit.",
  "Sensitivity (shared inputs, every route alike): return rate 10% instead of 19.3% adds about $8 per order and 30% removes about $9; return cost at 59% instead of 21% removes about $7; a return rate 5 points higher on agent orders would cost more than a 4% platform fee. Return, fraud and chargeback rates for agent orders are unknown and held equal across routes.",
  "Acquisition, returns, service and operating costs can change or reverse the order of the routes. The displayed values are illustrative inputs, not measured merchant outcomes, and not a ranking."
 ]
}